TL;DR
- Pick Apple AirPods Pro (2nd generation): street prices often get slashed roughly 25%.
- Apple Watch Series 9 sees similar discounts; it's not unusual to snag one for 20% less.
- For the Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra, that 15-30% plunge is real—check major retailers a few months post-launch.
- Sony WH-1000XM5 headphones regularly get chopped by a fifth or more.
- Even the Nintendo Switch OLED Model, once the next thing rumors swirl, routinely drops 20% off list.
- Accessories and bundles? They’re typically slashed deeper.
- Set price alerts immediately. Then, dig into historical lows - this step is crucial. It exposes fake discounts retailers float during sales chaos. Without that data, you’re just guessing.
How Black Friday discounts usually work
Retailers and manufacturers plan discounts around patterns you can predict. Previous-generation flagships drop in price. Overstocked accessories get slashed. Console bundles combine hardware with games or subscriptions.
A few key factors drive those big price cuts:
- Model-year turnover - Premium tech from last year turns into discount bait for this season
- Stock cycles - Retailers need to clear inventory before holiday stock shows up
- Manufacturer incentives - Brands subsidize retailer discounts to keep their market share intact
- Retailer bundles - Gift cards, extended warranties, or bundled accessories pump up perceived value
Price targets & deal signals to watch
Don’t assume every Black Friday “deal” actually saves you cash. Real discounts fall within predictable ranges - deviate and you’re probably being played.
For phones, expect 10-25% off. True flagship models seldom crack 20% unless you’re locked into a carrier or trading in. Those deeper cuts? They’re rarely on the newest device.
Headphones can hit 15-35% off. Premium over-ear models sometimes reach the higher end, but mid-range pairs often get the weakest promotions.
With wearables - mainly watches - look for 15-30% discounts. Bands and accessory bundles might drop even more, but the core hardware stays in that bracket.
Consoles & bundles run 10-25% off. Hardware itself has slim margins, so retailers push bundles with games or extras. That’s where the real value hides.
Use tools like CamelCamelCamel or Honey to set alerts. Always check the item’s historical low before buying. And when you see “$200 off,” verify they didn’t just inflate the price a few weeks prior.
Top 5 gadgets likely to go on sale this Black Friday
Apple AirPods Pro (2nd generation)
Key specs:
- Size & weight (per earbud): Height 30.9 mm | Width 21.8 mm | Depth 24.0 mm | Weight 5.3 g
- Chip: Apple H2 for enhanced noise cancellation and spatial audio
- Sensors: Dual beamforming microphones, inward-facing microphone, skin-detect sensor, motion-detecting accelerometers
- Charging: MagSafe and USB-C compatible case with built-in speaker and lanyard loop
Why it's likely to be discounted:
Apple rarely slashes prices on current AirPods models. Retailers do though. During Black Friday, they typically cut $30-$50 to bring shoppers through their doors. As holiday shopping ramps up and Apple clarifies its 2025 audio plans, expect third-party stores to push aggressive bundles - think AirPods paired with AppleCare or retailer gift cards. Competition matters here too. Brands like Sony and Bose keep releasing strong wireless earbuds, which puts pressure on Apple's retail pricing.
What a good Black Friday price looks like:
Second-gen AirPods Pro launched at $249. A solid Black Friday deal sits around $199-$209, which is roughly 15-20% off. Even better are bundle deals. Getting a $25 gift card on top of a discount compounds your savings nicely. Skip "deals" that only drop prices by $10-$15. You can find those markdowns year-round at many retailers.
Apple Watch Series 9
Key specs:
- Sizes: 41mm and 45mm case options
- Depth: 10.7 mm
- Weight (examples): 41mm aluminum GPS model ≈ 31.9 g | 45mm aluminum GPS model ≈ 38.7 g
- Chip: S9 SiP (System in Package) with improved on-device Siri and double-tap gesture
- Features: Brighter display (up to 2000 nits), watchOS 10, advanced health sensors
Why discounts are likely:
Wearables have predictable seasonal patterns. Apple Watches typically drop 10-20% during Black Friday. Band and accessory bundles? They go even deeper. Best Buy and Amazon usually combine watch discounts with same-day pickup or membership perks.
What counts as a good Black Friday price:
Series 9 GPS starts at $399 (41mm). Target $329-$349, which is 15-20% off base model. Some retailers offer $379 with a free extra band or AppleCare+ trial thrown in. Spot something at $299 or below? That's probably an older Series 8 - double-check that SKU. Cellular models have strong deals around $429-$449 versus their typical $499 price.
Samsung Galaxy S24 Ultra
Key specs:
- Camera system (rear): 200 MP wide (f/1.7) | 50 MP periscope telephoto (f/3.4) | 12 MP ultrawide (f/2.2) | 10 MP telephoto (f/2.4)
- Front camera: 12 MP
- Video recording: 8K at 30fps, 4K at 60fps with advanced stabilization
- Durability: Titanium frame, Corning Gorilla Armor glass, IP68 water/dust resistance
- Storage options: 256GB, 512GB, 1TB (verify exact SKU when shopping)
Why it's likely to be discounted:
Flagship phones typically drop 10-15% off retail price, but that's just scratching the surface. Carrier trade-in promotions and retailer bundles deliver better value. Samsung expects to launch Galaxy S25 in early 2026, which means they'll want S24 Ultra inventory cleared out fast. Carriers will join that push. Watch for "free with trade-in" deals offering up to $800 in credits if you've got a qualifying device. Unlocked discounts often come paired with Samsung Credit or gift cards.
What a good Black Friday price looks like:
S24 Ultra launched at $1,299 for 256GB. A solid Black Friday deal on an unlocked model would hit $1,099-$1,149 - about 12-15% off. Carrier purchases tell a different story. You're aiming for $800-$1,000 in trade-in credits even if your phone is as old as Galaxy S21 or iPhone 12. That's your sweet spot. Just skip deals requiring 36-month contracts unless you're absolutely sticking with that carrier.
Sony WH-1000XM5
Key specs:
- Type: Closed-back, over-ear dynamic headphones
- Driver unit: 30 mm dome
- Weight: Approximately 8.82 oz (250 g)
- Frequency response (active): 4 Hz-40,000 Hz (LDAC codec)
- Features: DSEE Extreme upscaling, eight-microphone noise cancellation system, touch controls, multipoint Bluetooth pairing
- Battery: Up to 30 hours with ANC on; quick charge (3 min = 3 hours playback)
Why discounts are expected:
Premium headphones see big Black Friday cuts. Discounts usually range from 20-40% off. These high-margin accessories face stiff competition from brands like Bose, Apple, and Sennheiser. Sony regularly drops prices on XM5 models during major sales to maintain its lead in noise-canceling headphones. Retailers sometimes throw in music streaming trials - think Spotify or Tidal - to make deals more appealing.
What good Black Friday pricing looks like:
WH-1000XM5 headphones retail at $399. You should expect them around $279-$299 during Black Friday, which equals roughly 25-30% off. Anything below $270 counts as an exceptional find. Bundle offers can add real value: paying $299 with 3 months of free Tidal HiFi basically gives you an extra $30 worth. Skip those $349 "deals" - they pop up throughout the year and aren't genuine Black Friday pricing.
Nintendo Switch - OLED Model
Key specs:
- Screen: 7.0-inch OLED touchscreen, 1280×720 resolution in handheld mode
- Internal storage: 64 GB (expandable via microSD)
- Battery: Lithium-ion 4310 mAh (approximately 4.5-9 hours depending on game; e.g., The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild runs ~5.5 hours)
- Dock features: Enhanced audio, wired LAN port built into OLED dock (not present in standard Switch dock)
- Weight: Approximately 320 g (without Joy-Con controllers attached)
Why it's likely to be discounted:
Gaming consoles operate on thin hardware margins. Straight price cuts are rare. Bundles are where it's at. Nintendo typically works with retailers to package Switch OLED units with first-party games like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe or Splatoon 3, plus a carrying case. These bundles deliver about $60-$80 in added value. Black Friday is one of few times Nintendo hardware gets any markdown at all. OLED inventory is healthier than in past years, which makes 2025 a promising year for deals.
What a good Black Friday price looks like:
OLED Model retails at $349. A solid deal would be $329 for just the console - that's about 6% off. Another option is paying full price but getting a $50-$60 game thrown in, which saves you that amount. Console + game + accessory bundles at $379 offer the best overall value. Keep an eye out for refurbished units directly from Nintendo at $299. These come with a full 1-year warranty and are worth grabbing if stock gets tight.
FAQ
Will Black Friday always have the lowest price of the year?
Not always. While Black Friday is consistently strong for electronics, Cyber Monday and January clearance sales sometimes match or beat BF prices.
Are bundles (console+game/accessory) usually better than single-item discounts?
Yes, especially for consoles and wearables. A Switch OLED at $349 with a $60 game saves you more than a $329 console alone.
Should I buy this model now or wait for next generation?
Buy last year's flagship during Black Friday if you want premium features at mid-tier prices.
Are refurbished items worth it on Black Friday?
Manufacturer-certified refurbished models are excellent value - they come with warranties (often 1 year) and save 15-30% over new.
